Bihar Exit Poll 2025: TIF Research–NAI Predicts Landslide Victory for NDA with Up to 163 Seats

The TIF Research-NAI Exit Poll has forecast a massive win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar Assembly Election 2025, projecting a clear mandate in favor of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his allies. According to the poll, the NDA could win between 145 and 163 seats, securing around 45% of the total vote share, while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is expected to lag behind with 76 to 95 seats and a 38% vote share.

The projection, if it holds true on counting day, would mean a thumping victory for the ruling coalition and reaffirm Nitish Kumar's leadership in one of India's most politically volatile states.

Party-Wise Projections: NDA Surges Ahead

Within the NDA, both the Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are projected to perform strongly, each winning between 64 and 71 seats. The two major allies are estimated to capture around 19-20% of the total vote share each, reflecting a balanced partnership that continues to anchor the alliance's success in Bihar.

The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is expected to secure 12 to 14 seats with about 4.7-5% of the vote, while smaller allies like the Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) are projected to win 3-5 seats and 1-3 seats, respectively.

Together, the NDA's combined strength positions it comfortably above the majority mark of 122 seats, suggesting a renewed mandate for governance continuity.

Mahagathbandhan Trails Despite Strong RJD Showing

The Mahagathbandhan (MGB), led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), is projected to win 76 to 95 seats, accounting for 38% of the total vote share. Within the bloc, the RJD is expected to emerge as the largest party with 61 to 73 seats and a vote share of 22.9-24%. The Congress (INC) is projected to secure 9 to 13 seats with 7.7-8.1% of votes, while smaller allies are expected to pick up 6 to 12 seats combined.

Despite an energetic campaign led by Tejashwi Yadav, the MGB's performance appears unable to counter the NDA's strong voter base and organizational presence.

Final Verdict Awaits

The official counting of votes on November 14, 2025, will determine whether the TIF Research-NAI predictions hold true. If they do, Bihar appears set to hand the NDA a commanding victory and another term in power.