Maha Polls: Eknath Shinde's Winning Legacy War Against Uddhav Thackeray? Trends Show Shiv Sena Ahead Of UBT

Has the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena eclipsed Uddhav Thackeray's faction in the Maharashtra Assembly elections? Early trends strongly suggest so, with Shinde's Shiv Sena performing remarkably well.

The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is poised to retain power, leading in 204 of the 288 assembly seats, according to the Election Commission's latest updates. In contrast, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) trails significantly, with leads in only 47 constituencies.

Several TV channels projected an even stronger performance for the Mahayuti, leading in 212 seats compared to MVA's 68 seats as counting progressed after the November 20 elections.

In the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections, the ruling Mahayuti alliance saw the BJP contesting 149 seats, while the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena fielded candidates in 81 constituencies. The Ajit Pawar-led faction of the NCP rounded off the alliance by contesting 59 seats.

On the other hand, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance also displayed a robust seat-sharing arrangement. The Congress fielded candidates in 101 constituencies, while the Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray-led Shiv Sena contested 95 seats. The Sharad Pawar-led faction of the NCP added its weight by contesting 86 seats.

A look back at the 2019 Assembly elections offers context to the shifting political dynamics. In Mumbai, the undivided Shiv Sena, allied with the BJP, contested 19 seats, winning 14. Meanwhile, the BJP secured victory in 16 seats. The Congress, in alliance with the undivided NCP, contested 29 seats in the city but managed to win only 4, with the NCP securing just 1 of the 6 seats it contested.

Statewide, the BJP emerged as the largest party in the 2019 elections, winning 105 out of the 164 seats it contested. The Shiv Sena followed, securing 56 out of the 126 constituencies it contested. This historical performance laid the foundation for the present alliances, underscoring how political calculations and voter preferences have shaped the strategies for 2024.

With a resounding lead in 2024, the Mahayuti alliance appears to have significantly consolidated its position, while the MVA struggles to maintain its footing in Maharashtra's political landscape.

If the current trends hold, Eknath Shinde appears poised to secure a decisive victory in the battle for Shiv Sena's legacy. This would mark a significant triumph over Uddhav Thackeray, following Shinde's dramatic split from the party in 2022-a party originally founded by Uddhav's father, the late Bal Thackeray.

Responding to the trends, Shiv Sena UBT leader Sanjay Raut said, "This cannot be the decision of the people of Maharashtra. We know what the people of Maharashtra want..."