Syrian Refugees Reluctant to Return as Lebanon Crisis Presents New Opportunities for Officials

Hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees have returned to Syria since Israel began extensive airstrikes in Lebanon in September. Many Syrians who had sought refuge in Lebanon since the Syrian conflict began in 2011 were hesitant to return. However, Lebanese officials see this influx as a potential positive outcome of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has resulted in over 3,000 deaths and displaced around 1.2 million people in Lebanon.

Lebanon's General Security agency reports that over 550,000 people have fled the country, with most being Syrian. The UN refugee agency estimates more than 470,000 people have crossed the border since mid-September. Most returnees are heading to areas controlled by the Syrian government, while others are moving to Kurdish-controlled regions in the northeast or opposition-held areas in the northwest.

Impact on Syria's Economy

The influx of refugees into Syria has intensified economic challenges, including inflation and trade disruptions due to Israeli strikes on border crossings. Damascus officials argue that this situation should prompt a reconsideration of Western sanctions on President Bashar Assad's government. Abdul-Qader Azzouz, an economic analyst at Damascus University, highlighted that the refugee influx adds to Syria's economic burden.

Alaa al-Sheikh from Damascus province urged the US to lift sanctions due to the large number of arrivals. "The burden is big and we are in pressing need of international assistance," she said. Rights groups have expressed concerns about the treatment of returning refugees, with reports of arbitrary arrests despite a declared amnesty for draft dodgers.

Refugee Safety Concerns

Joseph Daher, a Swiss-Syrian researcher, noted that while arrests are few, Assad's government might not see returnees as a threat since they are mostly women and children. He described government efforts to portray returning refugees as welcome as "propaganda," stating they are not ready economically or politically for their return.

UNHCR head Filippo Grandi stated that his agency is collaborating with the Syrian government to ensure safety for all returnees and urged donors to provide humanitarian aid for Syria's recovery after 13 years of war.

Temporary Return and Protection

Rula Amin from UNHCR mentioned that refugees usually lose their protected status if they leave their host country. However, given the current circumstances, this policy may need adjustments with necessary safeguards. Jeff Crisp from Oxford University believes Syrians deserve continued international protection due to threats in both countries.

Some refugees used smuggler routes to enter Syria without official records of their departure from Lebanon. Um Yaman left Beirut's bombarded suburbs for Raqqa with her children via smuggling routes. She hopes to maintain her papers in order in Lebanon for a possible return if conditions improve.

The situation remains uncertain for many refugees like Um Yaman, who expressed a willingness to return if peace is restored in Lebanon but acknowledged that nothing is clear at present.