The story so far in Karnataka: Will it be caste or anti-incumbency?

The game in Karnataka is constantly evolving, with opinion polls throwing up all sorts of results.

The question is whether the Congress can wrest power from the ruling BJP which has been beaten by the anti-incumbency bug. The state of Karnataka has for the past 30 years not voted for the same party twice in a row. While it is yet to be seen whether the semi-retirement of pan-Karnataka BJP leader Yediyurappa would have any effect on the polls, the party is however heavily reliant on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who still has a few rallies left in the state.

In recent times it is only the Congress which has secured a majority twice. The 1999 elections led by S M Krishna and the one in 2013 headed by Siddaramaiah.

However post the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, the Congress has known to let itself slip. While the campaign was looking very good for the party, it has slipped post the release of its manifesto. In the manifesto, the Congress spoke about banning groups such as the Bajrang Dal. This has turned the tide in favour of the BJP, which has now gone to town stating that the Congress is anti-Hindutva. There were quick rebuttals by the Congress, which said that it never claimed to ban the Bajrang Dal. Congress leader and former chief minister of Karnataka, Veerappa Moily had to issue a clarification and even said that the president of the Congress party in the state, D K Shivakumar would further clarify on the issue.

If one were to compare the campaign pitch, then the Congress has focused on corruption, inflation and jobs. The BJP on the other hand is making a caste-based pitch. Prior to the elections, the party scrapped the four per cent reservation for Muslims and distributed equally among the Vokkaligas and Lingayats, the two most dominant communities in the state.

The Congress too is not too far behind when it comes to playing the caste card. At his inaugural election meeting in Kolar, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi had called for a caste census. The Congress has also promised of enhancing the reservation quotas to 75 per cent which is beyond the Supreme Court's mandated ceiling of 50 per cent.

For the BJP going ahead the dependancy is going to be heavy on the central leadership. The Modi-Shah factor is what the BJP would like to capitalise on. Yediyurappa is of course part of the campaign, but his voter base understands that he is not in the race for any position and this could factor in on the voters.

For the Congress on the other hand it is all Siddaramaiah. He is far ahead in terms of popularity when compared to Basavaraj Bommai or H D Kumaraswamy. While Siddaramaiah may be popular across the state, he does have a problem of plenty when it comes to his own constituency, Varuna. He is up for a tough fight with V Somanna or the BJP. In case he loses his own constituency, then his bargaining chips will fall drastically in case the Congress comes to power and he is gunning for the post of Chief Minister.

Siddaramaiah has the reputation of leading the Congress to a full majority in 2013. However there was one factor back then. Yediyurappa had quit the BJP and formed the KJP, which resulted in a massive vote split.