Tehran eying a nuclear deal

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi recently said that Tehran would 'stick' to negotiations for a fresh nuclear deal. This shows how serious Iran today is to clinch a new deal with the US and other parties to the JCPOA.

In a speech at the University of Al-Zahra last week, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi touched upon the ongoing European Union-led talks in Vienna aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). President Raisi declared that Tehran "would not leave the negotiation table" and 'stick' to negotiations for a fresh nuclear deal. His remarks on the nuclear issue offer yet another indication as to how serious Tehran today is to clinch a new nuclear deal with the United States and other parties to the JCPOA.

Observers say the reasons for Iran's eagerness for the nuclear deal are not far to seek. Even before reaching an agreement, the Biden administration has lifted some sanctions, permitted Iran to use frozen funds and eased enforcement of the restriction on Iranian oil exports. This has enabled Iran to increase its oil exports and foreign trade volume. Iran began the new fiscal year on March 21, 2022, with its GDP growth of 4.4 per cent.

Calculations are that an agreement with the United States and the consequent lifting of sanctions would further boost Iranian economy. It would signal to the rest of the world that Iran is now open for business in oil, seafaring, energy, metals, ships, vehicles, insurance, and other areas.

Iran's oil exports would double within six months. Oil prices are exceeding $100 per barrel today. The removal of sanctions would help Iran purchase industrial machinery and produce higher quality goods for exports. It would help Iran also to speed up its nuclear armament programme and devote its resources to subversive efforts in the Middle East and the world.

Iran's foreign trade is likely to grow further if all sanctions against the country are lifted. Following the lifting of the previous sanctions in 2016, oil exports increased from 1.6 barrels per day to 2.3 million in 2017. Currently, Iran has to pay intermediaries large sums for oil sales. After sanctions are lifted, Iran would be able to receive market prices for oil exports.

The Iranian economy will benefit from the return of many citizens who left the country and will return with their skills and financial means. About four million Iranians are living abroad, including 1.5 million in the United States. Iranians abroad own assets worth $1.3-2 trillion.

The Iranian economy has been badly damaged since the Donald J Trump administration in Washington withdrew the United States from the nuclear agreement in May 2018 and reinstated sanctions. The 2018 sanctions cut Iran from its primary source of income. Its oil exports declined to 100,000 barrels a day in July 2020.

(Jagdish N. Singh is a senior journalist based in New Delhi. He is also Senior Distinguished Fellow at the Gatestone Institute, New York)

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