How real is Chinese govt's Covid data?

A 5-point analysis done by a UK firm brings out the truth as it has found a huge gap between the figures provided by the Chinese authorities and the actual scenario at the ground level.

New Delhi, Jan 11: Several nations and world bodies have accused China of providing wrong data about the number of cases and deaths due to Covid-19. There seems to be truth behind the allegations as during a data analysis, London-based firm 'Airfinity' has found that there is a huge gap between the figures given by the Chinese government and the actual scenario at the ground level.

According to the company, the number of cases of infection at the peak of the pandemic last week was around 3.7 million a day, and keeping the recorded estimates at the end of Dec 2022 and the beginning of Jan 23 in mind, the figure may go up to 5.84 million. Similarly, the number of deaths during the period was at least 25,000 per day whereas the Chinese authorities have put the death toll at just a little above 5,200.

The Chinese authorities have been very quick in their response to any query in this regard and always try to push a certain kind of narrative, but the fact of the matter is that the figures they provide differ from the data received from different sources, global as well as local. Anyway, the 5-point analysis carried out by the company is as follows:

1. The Public Obituaries are creating difficulties in hiding the hints: The obituaries posted by the Chinese Research Institute and Scientific Organisation have gone up on social media commemorating the service of the scientist, doctors and engineers who had served the organisation, just prior to their fall as a prey to the surge of virus. While the Chinese Academy of Engineering has alone reported the death of 20 members within a period of less than a month, the annual average death rate reported by 'South China Morning Post' is just 16. There are many renowned names circulating, including Beijing Olympics opera singer Chu Lanlan and 34 renowned painters, who lost their lives during the period.

2. 88 million infections in Henan alone: According to CNN citing the data from a top official, 89% of the total population of the third most populous region of China has been affected by the surge of virus. So if we take the population there into account, 88.5 million out of 99.4 million might have been affected so far in Henan province alone. But last month, Beijing made the Covid-19 test non-compulsory, obviously with an intention to deviate from the real-time data.

3. Doctors were asked not to list the deaths: According to the reports published in 'New York Times', the Chinese doctors have been advised not to assign Covid-19 infection to the deaths even when caused by it. As per some other media reports, a similar circular is being floated on the Chinese social media network. The patients who die of pre-medical conditions are not to be considered as Covid-19 deaths.

4. Surge of demand in Indian generic drugs: According to reports from the Chinese e-commerce data portals, the booking process of Indian generic drugs like Primovir, Paxista, Movnat, Molantris and Paxolovid is very challenging as they are highly regulated and provided in a controlled manner.

5. The funeral houses and government hospitals are overladen: According to another report by New York Times, the government facilities like funeral houses are packed with the bodies of the Covid-19 patients. As people can be seen lying on the damp floors of the hospital alley, even serious patients cannot expect to get a bed in the hospitals. In some government hospitals, people are left to their own fate. While a journalist spoke to the staff of a funeral house, they confirmed that they are booked at least for more than a week.

From the above point-to-point analysis, it is clear that there is something wrong with the data provided by the Chinese authorities. While the social media reports and reports from the Chinese media released from time to time are self-contradicting, the huge gap between the figures raises doubt about the data accuracy provided by the Chinese authorities.