West Bengal Elections Predictions: Is BJP Ready To End Mamata's Rule? Check Pre Poll Survey Report

Is The BJP finally winning Bengal? Will Mamata Banerjee's 15-year rule finally come to an end? These are the questions that have been lingering in the minds of political observers across the country.

As the Election Commission announced the poll dates for Bengal, the pre-poll survey report after the announcement is out.

An opinion poll by IANS and Matrize ha declared that the BJP will register its best performance till date but it does not stop Mamata's TMC from retaining the power in Bengal in the upcoming polls, though with a reduced margin.

According to the survey, the TMC-seeking a fourth consecutive term in office-is projected to secure around 43-45 per cent of the vote share, which could translate into 155-170 seats in the 292-member Assembly. The majority mark in the House is 148 seats.

The poll indicates that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to strengthen its position compared with the previous Assembly election but may still fall short of unseating the TMC government. The alliance is projected to win 100-115 seats with an estimated 41-43 per cent vote share.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, the BJP-led NDA secured 38 per cent of the vote share and won 77 seats, making it the principal opposition in the state. The latest survey suggests that the alliance could improve both its vote share and seat tally in the upcoming contest.

Overall, the poll indicates a closely fought election, with the BJP-led alliance expanding its support base while the TMC remains poised to return to power despite signs of anti-incumbency.

Meanwhile, the Election Commission of India has announced that Assembly elections in West Bengal will be held in two phases-April 23 and April 29-with the counting of votes scheduled for May 4.

The poll schedule was announced alongside election dates for Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and the Union Territory of Puducherry. While these regions will vote in a single phase, West Bengal will go to the polls in two phases-significantly fewer than the eight phases seen during the 2021 elections, when polling stretched over more than a month.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, the TMC won 215 seats in the 294-member Assembly, while the BJP secured 77 seats, marking a dramatic rise from just three seats in 2016 and establishing itself as the main opposition party in the state.