Middle East Turmoil: Multiple Ramifications For India

India is likely to be impacted in more than one way by the turmoil in the Middle East after the US-Israel military strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation - which includes strikes on US bases in Gulf nations - UAE, Qatar, Kuwait (this retaliation was referred to as Operation Truthful Promise 4).

Iranian missile strikes hit the following sites in the Gulf: Dubai's airport, a hotel in Dubai, Jebel Ali seaport, residential buildings in Bahrain and the Kuwait airport. Iran also launched strikes on Tel Aviv -- on late Saturday night -- with a residential building being hit. One person was killed while 27 individuals were injured in the attack.

With Iran's retaliation, the geopolitical equations in the Middle East have changed yet again -- ties between Iran and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states, apart from will once again witness a downhill slope.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei - 86 -- along with his daughter, grand-child, son-in-law and daughter-in-law were killed in these attacks. Iran's state TV, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), while saying he had attained 'martyrdom' also said:
'showed that he consistently stood among the people and at the forefront of his responsibilities, confronting what officials call global arrogance'.

Apart from Khamenei and his family members, Iranian Defence Minister Amir Nasirzadeh, Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammed Pakpour and five other military commanders were killed in the attack. According to estimates over 200 people, including 108 in a school explosion in Iran, have been killed in the US air strikes while over 700 have been injured.
While US President, Donald Trump said that US bombing of Iran will continue, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) vowed retribution for the killing of Khamenei with the 'most ferocious offensive operation in history'.

India's response

In a statement, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) while commenting on the conflict said,'We urge all sides to exercise restraint, avoid escalation, and prioritise the safety of civilians. Dialogue and diplomacy should be pursued to de-escalate tensions and address underlying issues. Sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states must be respected,' If one were to look at the important ramifications of the conflict for India.

First, India has a large expat population in the Gulf - estimated at over 8 million. The safety of Indian expats in the Gulf, Iran and Israel would be a matter of concern. India has already issued advisories to Indian nationals in these countries to keep a close watch on advisories by local authorities and seek assistance from helpline contacts while exercising utmost caution. In recent years, India's ties, in both the economic and strategic sphere, have improved significantly with Gulf countries - especially UAE and Saudi Arabia - so any turmoil is bound to impact India.

Second, Gulf countries have closed their airspace, airports have been shut and several Indian passengers have been stranded at Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Indian air carriers - including Air India, Akasa and Indigo have cancelled their flights to the Middle East. Air India has cancelled its flights -- scheduled for March 1, 2026 -- to Europe, US, UK and Canada due to the turmoil in the Middle East.

Third, 1/5th of global crude oil supplies pass through the Straits of Hormuz (20 million barrels of crude pass through this route each day). In recent months according to estimates over 40% of India's crude oil have been passing through the Straits of Hormuz (India imports 2.6 million barrels of crude oil through this route daily). Any closure of this strait will result in a rise in crude oil prices, and this will impact the Indian consumer. If the conflict carries on according to several analysts, oil prices could jump to over $100 per barrel. If the current crisis gets prolonged, then India is likely to explore alternative energy sources as well as supply routes for fulfilling its oil needs.

Third, India has robust ties with Israel but also has close ties with Iran. New Delhi has invested in the Chabahar Port a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia. The Port has been dubbed as an important component of India's regional connectivity aims and this will have to be put on hold.

Finally, New Delhi cannot afford to be a mute spectator to the conflict, given its long-standing relationship with Iran, it's interests in that nation, and the safety of Indian expats in the Gulf. The recent turmoil is also likely to impact geopolitical configurations in South Asia.

In conclusion, the conflict will have strong reverberations for the global community as is already evident from disruption of flights, the possible rise in oil prices. It also reiterates how India is closely bound to the Middle East. While not taking sides, India needs to firmly pitch for peace and work with other countries for the same.

Tridivesh Singh Maini is an Assistant Professor at the Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA), where he has been teaching since August 2014. His research interests include - India's ties with its extended neighbourhood (with a focus on Gulf and Iran), South Asia's geopolitics, the role of India's states in the country's external relations, The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and BRICS.