Hindutva, polarisation, anti-incumbency to decide outcome of elections in Coastal Karnataka

Coastal Karnataka has always been referred to as a laboratory of Hindutva politics.’ The question is whether this time the region would vote on these lines.

Coastal Karnataka is often referred to as a 'laboratory of Hindutva politics' and in 2018 the BJP won bagged 12 of the 13 seats in Dakshina Kannada and Udupi districts.

This time, the scenario could be a bit different, with various issues cropping up in Coastal Karnataka, the stronghold of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). While the murder of BJP Yuva Morcha leader, Praveen Nettaru and the hijab issue could be the polarising factor, there is also anti-incumbency that the BJP will have to deal with.

The campaign styles by the political parties has also changed a lot this time around. Culture is playing a big part in the campaign. Parties are tying to woo the voters Kabbadi and volleyball tournaments and also Kambala. In addition to this leaders are also organising cultural events.

Also in the mix of this direct fight between the BJP and Congress, others such as the Shri Rama Sene and SDPI are in fray threatening to split the votes. As political analysts put it, the SDPI could split the votes of the Congress and the Ram Sene the votes of the BJP.

While in the most recent elections, the coast has voted largely on religious lines, this time the caste factor would also be in play. For instance, the Bunts, Billavas and Mogaveeras are all seeking representation and this would make it tricky for the political parties while handing out tickets.

Some of the seats that are being closely watched in the coast at Bantwal, Puttur, Mangaluru and Karkala.

Pramod Muthalik of the Shri Ram Sene says that he wants to contest against the BJP in Karkala. He has been saying that his fight is for real-Hindutva and for a corruption free-Karnataka.

A recent survey showed the BJP performing better than its competitors in Coastal Karnataka. The survey said that the BJP would end up 14-17 seats, while the Congress would bag 7-10 and the JD(S) 0-1.

Experts tell OneIndia that if the Nettaru and Hijab issues have a polarising effect, then the BJP would romp home, with the Hindus voting in its favour en-masse.

Similar issues are also being capitalised by the SDPFI, a political offshoot of the Popular Front of India, which was banned last year. The SDPI or Social Democratic Party of India had indicated that its focus would be on almost all seats in the coast and southern Karnataka, where the Muslim population is strong. There is a belief among the Muslims that it was the SDPI which stood up and not Congress when the hijab issues rocked Karnataka. The SDPI is also banking on the way its vote share has been rising. In 2013, its vote share was 3.2 per cent and by 2018, it rose to 10.5 per cent. The SDPI also won six ward seats in the urban local body elections held in December 2021.

The SFPI has said that it would field Riyaz Farangipet against U T Khader in the Mangaluru segment. In Puttur, the contest would be closely watched if the SDPI goes ahead with the candidature of Shafi Bellare, who was arrested in connection with the murder of Nettaru. The Congress on the other hand is looking to field Ashok Rai, a former BJP member against sitting MLA from the BJP, Sanjeev Matador.

The murder of Nettaru is an election issue. While many have blamed the government for not doing enough for Hindus, the VHPs Sharan Pumpwell said that this would not have a poll impact according to Deccan Herald (https://www.deccanherald.com/state/karnataka-politics/karnataka-hijab-issue-nettaru-murder-drive-coastals-poll-narrative-1198368.html).

In a nutshell the battle for the coast will be an interesting one with a close eye being watched on Hindutva, polarisation, anti-incumbency and the possibility of the SDPI splitting the Congress vote.