Tamil Nadu Election: How Many Seats Will Vijay's TVK Win In 2026 Polls?

The Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) has projected itself as a serious contender in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, claiming that its internal assessments point to a vote share crossing the 30 per cent mark, India Today reported citing the party's internal assesment.

The party has asserted that public sentiment is increasingly tilting in its favour, positioning it as a key force in the state's evolving political landscape.

On the findings, TVK leader C.T. Nirmal Kumar told India Today that the party's own evaluations and multiple survey reports indicate growing acceptance among voters. He argued that TVK enjoys the widest base of support at present, while estimating that the ruling DMK's vote share may not exceed 21 per cent.

Drawing a comparison, he recalled that the AIADMK had secured only 19.5 per cent in the last Assembly election it contested without the late J. Jayalalithaa.

The internal survey lends some nuance to these claims. Conducted with a sizeable sample of 41,453 respondents, the survey places the DMK marginally ahead with a 32.9 per cent preference, closely followed by TVK at 31.7 per cent. The AIADMK trails with 27.3 per cent, while other parties together account for the remaining 8.1 per cent.

The data also maps TVK's areas of relative strength, identifying districts such as Chennai, Chengalpattu, Dharmapuri, Madurai, Pudukottai, Ranipet, Tenkasi, Thirupathur, Thiruvarur, Thoothukudi, Tiruppur, Tiruvallur and Cuddalore as pockets where the party enjoys notable traction.

In terms of seat projections, the same survey suggests a fragmented verdict, with the DMK leading at 104 seats, TVK following with 74 seats, and the AIADMK projected to secure 56 seats. However, party insiders acknowledge that different assessments have thrown up varying figures. Sources said another survey, reportedly commissioned by a Congress leader, pegged TVK's vote share at a lower 26 per cent, underlining the fluidity of voter preferences at this stage.

Adding to the mix are findings from a separate survey conducted earlier by the DMK, details of which were accessed by ThePrint. That exercise suggested that Vijay-led TVK could secure around 23 per cent of the vote if it were to contest the elections on its own. Conducted between October 1 and 9, the survey covered nearly 2.91 lakh respondents, with an average of 1,245 participants per Assembly constituency.

Respondents were asked about their views on TVK aligning with the NDA - which in Tamil Nadu mainly consists of the BJP and AIADMK - as well as their willingness to support the party if it chose to go solo.

The DMK's internal assessment outlined multiple scenarios. In a hypothetical NDA alliance involving the AIADMK, BJP and TVK, the ruling DMK was projected to retain a dominant 50 per cent vote share, with the NDA at 35 per cent, Seeman's Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) at 12 per cent and others at 3 per cent. While such an alliance could consolidate votes numerically, the survey cautioned that internal rifts within the AIADMK and ideological resistance to the BJP could limit its overall appeal.

In a scenario where TVK contests independently, the DMK's vote share was expected to dip to 45 per cent, with the AIADMK-BJP combine falling to 22 per cent. TVK, in that case, could corner around 23 per cent, while NTK's support may shrink to 5 per cent.

Meanwhile, broader sentiment surveys continue to paint a complex picture. A July Vote Vibe survey indicated that despite visible anti-incumbency - with 41 per cent expressing high to very high dissatisfaction against the DMK government - the ruling alliance still emerged as the most trusted when it comes to development and welfare. As many as 61 per cent of respondents also indicated a desire to replace their sitting MLAs, signalling strong local-level churn across parties.

While the DMK-led alliance led the trust index with 37 per cent support, the AIADMK-BJP alliance followed closely at 32 per cent. TVK, though relatively new, was identified as an emerging third alternative, with 12 per cent of respondents placing their trust in the party launched earlier this year. Taken together, the surveys suggest that while TVK's rise has disrupted traditional equations, the 2026 contest remains wide open.